Among the sports betting public there's a lot of conflicting opinions about betting NFL preseason games. That's not really surprising, since there doesn't seem to be much middle ground on the subject. Overly cautious handicappers would argue that preseason football is a poor wagering opportunity. Some of the more obnoxious tout services would have you believe that short of a fixed game there is no greater "lock" that preseason football. Like most things that produce such polarized opinions, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Preseason NFL football is a unique proposition for the sports gambler, but when approached with caution, discipline and knowledge it can yield some profit.
The opponent of preseason wagering would suggest that its a bad wagering opportunity by its very nature alone--simply stated, the games don't count meaning that the motivation and focus of individual teams is always in question. It's hard enough to identify teams that are in a desirable 'spot' during the regular season, the often conflicting agendas of personnel evaluation, playbook testing, and injury prevention found in the preseason makes it impossible. All told, this uncertainty makes it very undesirable to get financially involved with preseason NFL games.
The proponent of preseason wagering would argue that this is the very reason that good opportunities frequently arise during preseason. First, additional value is frequently found with the underdog in preseason games by their very nature. To explain, in a hypothetical matchup between a Superbowl champion and an also-ran the "better" team by regular season standards would invariably be favored. However, by virtue of their success the "better" teams have not only more 'marquee names' to protect, but also valued guys in the trenches who could cause big problems if injured. Frequently, they'll have more depth and thus fewer personnel evaluation decisions to deal with. They'll have no need to "create a winning attitude", nor will they usually have wholesale changes in team composition, offensive or defensive strategy, or coaching philosophies to deal with. In short, the "better" teams often go into preseason situations with little to accomplish other than to get the games over with and stay healthy.
Now, lets look at the other side of the equation. A "lesser" team by regular season standards might have a number of starting spots or key backup spots up for grabs. They may have new coaches to impress, or new offensive or defensive coordinators whose schemes they'll have to implement. Certainly, winning any games"whether or not they count in the standings"are of utmost importance to losing teams trying to turn things around. Finally, a bad team can gain a lot more psychologically from beating a playoff team than the playoff team can from beating a doormat. A struggling team that is destined to lose a lot during the regular season won't have a lot of bright spots, so a preseason win against one of the league's elite can mean a lot more.
Even teams that put a low priority on preseason games don't want to lose them all. For this reason, a longterm winning situation has been to bet on teams that lose their first two preseason games outright. Over the past twenty years, 0-2 teams in this spot have produced a winning percentage right around 60%.
The philosophy of a NFL head coach is arguably the single most important factor contributing to preseason success. Some coaches always want to win, even if the games don't count in the standings. Other coaches place a much greater importance on evaluating personnel and giving backups playing time they won't have the opportunity to get during the regular season. The coaches that have a strong desire to win in the preseason often result in their team's pointspreads being inflated somewhat, but a motivated team is always worth consideration for a wager.
The smart preseason handicapper makes use of the Internet, and more specifically uses it to follow the local sports media of NFL teams. During NFL preseasons, teams' beat writers are anxious to write stories and need to fill articles but have little in the way of "real" news to write about. As a result, a handicapper can frequently find valuable details like a coach's goals for the game, playing time for key players, and specific strategies that will be implemented. Occasionally, coaches will come out and say that they're more interested in evaluating certain players for certain positions than they are in the outcome of the game. A thorough evaluation of this type of media coverage can often produce not only teams to play "on", but teams with priorities other than winning to play "against".
In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.
The opponent of preseason wagering would suggest that its a bad wagering opportunity by its very nature alone--simply stated, the games don't count meaning that the motivation and focus of individual teams is always in question. It's hard enough to identify teams that are in a desirable 'spot' during the regular season, the often conflicting agendas of personnel evaluation, playbook testing, and injury prevention found in the preseason makes it impossible. All told, this uncertainty makes it very undesirable to get financially involved with preseason NFL games.
The proponent of preseason wagering would argue that this is the very reason that good opportunities frequently arise during preseason. First, additional value is frequently found with the underdog in preseason games by their very nature. To explain, in a hypothetical matchup between a Superbowl champion and an also-ran the "better" team by regular season standards would invariably be favored. However, by virtue of their success the "better" teams have not only more 'marquee names' to protect, but also valued guys in the trenches who could cause big problems if injured. Frequently, they'll have more depth and thus fewer personnel evaluation decisions to deal with. They'll have no need to "create a winning attitude", nor will they usually have wholesale changes in team composition, offensive or defensive strategy, or coaching philosophies to deal with. In short, the "better" teams often go into preseason situations with little to accomplish other than to get the games over with and stay healthy.
Now, lets look at the other side of the equation. A "lesser" team by regular season standards might have a number of starting spots or key backup spots up for grabs. They may have new coaches to impress, or new offensive or defensive coordinators whose schemes they'll have to implement. Certainly, winning any games"whether or not they count in the standings"are of utmost importance to losing teams trying to turn things around. Finally, a bad team can gain a lot more psychologically from beating a playoff team than the playoff team can from beating a doormat. A struggling team that is destined to lose a lot during the regular season won't have a lot of bright spots, so a preseason win against one of the league's elite can mean a lot more.
Even teams that put a low priority on preseason games don't want to lose them all. For this reason, a longterm winning situation has been to bet on teams that lose their first two preseason games outright. Over the past twenty years, 0-2 teams in this spot have produced a winning percentage right around 60%.
The philosophy of a NFL head coach is arguably the single most important factor contributing to preseason success. Some coaches always want to win, even if the games don't count in the standings. Other coaches place a much greater importance on evaluating personnel and giving backups playing time they won't have the opportunity to get during the regular season. The coaches that have a strong desire to win in the preseason often result in their team's pointspreads being inflated somewhat, but a motivated team is always worth consideration for a wager.
The smart preseason handicapper makes use of the Internet, and more specifically uses it to follow the local sports media of NFL teams. During NFL preseasons, teams' beat writers are anxious to write stories and need to fill articles but have little in the way of "real" news to write about. As a result, a handicapper can frequently find valuable details like a coach's goals for the game, playing time for key players, and specific strategies that will be implemented. Occasionally, coaches will come out and say that they're more interested in evaluating certain players for certain positions than they are in the outcome of the game. A thorough evaluation of this type of media coverage can often produce not only teams to play "on", but teams with priorities other than winning to play "against".
In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.
About the Author:
Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer specializing in casino gambling, entertainment and sports betting. He has appeared on a number of TV and radio programs offering strategies for successful NFL football betting. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a pet llama. He is currently writing a biography of former NFL quarterback Ryan Leaf.
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